Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on gastroenterological surgeries in 2020: A study using the National Clinical Database of Japan

Aim This study aimed to investigate the effect of the coronavirus disease pandemic on the number of surgeries for gastroenterological cancer cases in Japan. Methods The data recorded in the National Clinical Database of Japan between 2018 and 2020 were utilized for this study. Five specific surgeries for primary cancers and surgery for acute diffuse peritonitis were considered the primary endpoints. We divided the study period into the prepandemic and postpandemic (after April 2020) periods and examined the number of surgeries in relation to clinical factors. Results Overall, 228 860 surgeries were analyzed. Among the five primary cancer surgeries, the number of distal gastrectomies for gastric cancer decreased the most (to 81.0% of the monthly number in the prepandemic period), followed by that of low anterior resections for rectal cancer (91.4%). In contrast, the number of pancreaticoduodenectomies for pancreatic cancer increased by 7.1%, while that of surgeries for peritonitis remained stable. This trend was observed nationwide. We also noted a marked reduction in the number of distal gastrectomy (to 72.5%), low anterior resection (84.0%), and esophagectomy (88.8%) procedures for T1 tumors. The noncurative resection rate and mortalities were low despite the increased proportion of T4 tumors and older patients. Conclusion A marked reduction in surgeries for gastric and rectal cancers with early T factors may reflect prioritization of surgeries and reduction in cancer screenings. Although the quality of the surgery was maintained in terms of reduced mortalities and morbidities, the long‐term effects of this pandemic should be monitored. The number of surgeries for gastroenterological cancer across Japan declined soon after the state of emergency declared during the COVID‐19 pandemic. The remarkable decline in T1/T2 tumors is suggestive of the prioritization or loss of the opportunity for cancer screening. The rates of severe complications and mortality were not worsened by COVID‐19, even for acute diffuse peritonitis. However, the observed reduction in the cases and lack of rebound deserve further evaluation and public motivation to promote cancer screening.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastroenterological surgeries in 2020: A study using the National Clinical Database of Japan.

Aim: This study aimed to investigate the effect of the coronavirus disease pandemic on the number of surgeries for gastroenterological cancer cases in Japan. Methods: The data recorded in the National Clinical Database of Japan between 2018 and 2020 were utilized for this study. Five specific surgeries for primary cancers and surgery for acute diffuse peritonitis were considered the primary endpoints. We divided the study period into the prepandemic and postpandemic (after April 2020) periods and examined the number of surgeries in relation to clinical factors. Results: Overall, 228 860 surgeries were analyzed. Among the five primary cancer surgeries, the number of distal gastrectomies for gastric cancer decreased the most (to 81.0% of the monthly number in the prepandemic period), followed by that of low anterior resections for rectal cancer (91.4%). In contrast, the number of pancreaticoduodenectomies for pancreatic cancer increased by 7.1%, while that of surgeries for peritonitis remained stable. This trend was observed nationwide. We also noted a marked reduction in the number of distal gastrectomy (to 72.5%), low anterior resection (84.0%), and esophagectomy (88.8%) procedures for T1 tumors. The noncurative resection rate and mortalities were low despite the increased proportion of T4 tumors and older patients. Conclusion: A marked reduction in surgeries for gastric and rectal cancers with early T factors may reflect prioritization of surgeries and reduction in cancer screenings. Although the quality of the surgery was maintained in terms of reduced mortalities and morbidities, the long-term effects of this pandemic should be monitored.

Large-scale epidemiological monitoring of the COVID-19 epidemic in Tokyo.

BACKGROUND: On April 7, 2020, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency regarding the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Given the nation-wide spread of the coronavirus in major Japanese cities and the rapid increase in the number of cases with untraceable infection routes, large-scale monitoring for capturing the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Japan is urgently required. METHODS: A chatbot-based healthcare system named COOPERA (COvid-19: Operation for Personalized Empowerment to Render smart prevention And AN care seeking) was developed to surveil the Japanese epidemiological situation in real-time. COOPERA asked questions regarding personal information, location, preventive actions, COVID-19 related symptoms and their residence. Empirical Bayes estimates of the age-sex-standardized incidence rate and disease mapping approach using scan statistics were utilized to identify the geographical distribution of the symptoms in Tokyo and their spatial correlation r with the identified COVID-19 cases. FINDINGS: We analyzed 353,010 participants from Tokyo recruited from 27th March to 6th April 2020. The mean (SD) age of participants was 42.7 (12.3), and 63.4%, 36.4% or 0.2% were female, male, or others, respectively. 95.6% of participants had no subjective symptoms. We identified several geographical clusters with high spatial correlation (r = 0.9), especially in downtown areas in central Tokyo such as Shibuya and Shinjuku. INTERPRETATION: With the global spread of COVID-19, medical resources are being depleted. A new system to monitor the epidemiological situation, COOPERA, can provide insights to assist political decision to tackle the epidemic. In addition, given that Japan has not had a strong lockdown policy to weaken the spread of the infection, our result would be useful for preparing for the second wave in other countries during the next flu season without a strong lockdown. FUNDING: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).

The clinical impact of COVID-19 on endoscopic surgery in Japan: Analysis of data from the National Clinical Database.

Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on elective endoscopic surgeries in Japan using the National Clinical Database. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological factors and surgical outcomes of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC), laparoscopic distal gastrectomy (LDG), and laparoscopic low anterior resection (LLAR) and compared the monthly numbers of each procedure performed in 2020 with those in 2018 and 2019. The degree of infection in prefectures was classified into low and high groups. Results: In 2020, the number of LCs (except for acute cholecystitis) was 76 079 (93.0% of that in 2019), the number of LDGs was 14 271 (85.9% of that in 2019), and the number of LLARs was 19 570 (88.1% of that in 2019). Although the number of robot-assisted LDG and LLAR cases increased in 2020, the growth rate was mild compared with that in 2019. There was little difference in the number of cases in the degree of infection in the prefectures. The numbers of LC, LDG, and LLAR cases decreased from May to June and recovered gradually. In late 2020, the proportion of T4 and N2 cases of gastric cancer and the number of T4 cases of rectal cancer increased compared with those in 2019. There was little difference between the proportions of postoperative complications and mortality in the three procedures between 2019 and 2020. Conclusion: The number of endoscopic surgeries decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the procedures were performed safely in Japan.

Annual report on National Clinical Database 2020 for gastroenterological surgery in Japan.

Aim: The National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan is a nationwide data entry system for surgery, and it marked its 10th anniversary in 2020. The aim was to present the 2020 annual report of gastroenterological surgery of the NCD. Methods: The data of the surgical procedures stipulated by the training curriculum for board-certified surgeons of the Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery in the NCD from 2011 to 2020 were summarized. Results: In total, 5 622 845 cases, including 593 088 cases in 2020, were extracted from the NCD. The total number of gastroenterological surgeries increased gradually in these 10 years, except for the year 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual number of surgeries of each organ, except the pancreas and liver, decreased by 0.4%-13.1% in 2020 compared to 2019. The surgical patients were consistently aging, with more than 20% of all gastroenterological surgeries in 2020 involving patients aged 80 years or older. The participation of board-certified surgeons increased for each organ (75.9%-95.7% in 2020). The rates of endoscopic surgery also increased constantly. Although the incidences of postoperative complications of each organ increased by 0.7%-7.9% in these 10 years, postoperative mortality rates decreased by 0.2%-1.5%. Conclusions: We present here the short-term outcomes of each gastroenterological operative procedure in 2020. This review of the 10-years of NCD data of gastroenterological surgery revealed a consistent increase of the number of surgeries (except for in 2020), especially endoscopic procedures, and aging of the Japanese population. The good safety of Japanese gastroenterological surgeries was also indicated.

The impact of social isolation from COVID-19-related public health measures on cognitive function and mental health among older adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

We aimed to estimate the impact of social isolation on cognitive function and mental health among older adults during the two-year-and-a-half COVID-19 period. Pubmed Central, Medline, CINAHL Plus and PsychINFO were searched between March 1, 2020, and September 30, 2022. We included all studies that assessed proportions of older adults with the mean or the median with a minimum age above 60 reporting worsening cognitive function and mental health. Thirty-two studies from 18 countries met the eligibility criteria for meta-analyses. We found that the proportions of older adults with dementia who experienced worsening cognitive impairment and exacerbation or new onset of behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) were approximately twice larger than that of older adults with HC experiencing SCD and worsening mental health. Stage of dementia, care options, and severity of mobility restriction measures did not yield significant differences in the number of older adults with dementia reporting worsening cognitive impairment and BPSD, while the length of isolation did for BPSD but not cognitive impairment. Our study highlights the impact of social isolation on cognitive function and mental health among older adults. Public health strategies should prioritize efforts to promote healthy lifestyles and proactive assessments.

Preventive Behaviors and Information Sources during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: individual preventive behaviors are one of the key measures needed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. This study sought to identify the factors associated with the adoption of COVID-19 preventive measures, focusing specifically on information sources. METHODS: we conducted a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of 30,053 Japanese adults in February 2021. The survey asked about socioeconomic, health-related, and psychological characteristics, attitudes toward immunization, and the use of information sources regarding COVID-19. We have constructed multivariable logistic regression to estimate the factors associated with the adoption of three preventive measures: 3Cs avoidance, hand hygiene and respiratory hygiene. RESULTS: socioeconomic variables, psychological variables, and the use of information sources are significantly associated with the adoption of preventive measures. The more information sources one uses, the more likely one is to adopt preventive measures. Trust in healthcare professionals is positively associated with adopting preventive measures. On the other hand, negative correlations between trust in social media and preventive behaviors were observed. CONCLUSIONS: encouraging access to multiple information sources, utilizing communication channels, and modifying messaging according to target groups are essential to promote COVID-19 preventive measures.

Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Increases in human mobility have been linked to rises in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. The pandemic era in Japan has been characterized by changes in inter-prefectural mobility across state of emergency (SOE) declarations and travel campaigns, but they have yet to be characterized. METHODS: Using Yahoo Japan mobility data extracted from the smartphones of more than 10 million Japanese residents, we calculated the monthly number of inter-prefectural travel instances, stratified by residential prefecture and destination prefecture. We then used this adjacency matrix to calculate two network connectedness metrics, closeness centrality and effective distance, that reliably predict disease transmission. RESULTS: Inter-prefectural mobility and network connectedness decreased most considerably during the first SOE, but this decrease dampened with each successive SOE. Mobility and network connectedness increased during the Go To Travel campaign. Travel volume between distant prefectures decreased more than travel between prefectures with geographic proximity. Closeness centrality was found to be negatively correlated with the rate of COVID-19 infection across prefectures, with the strength of this association increasing in tandem with the infection rate. Changes in effective distance were more visible among geographically isolated prefectures (Hokkaido and Okinawa) than among metropolitan, central prefectures (Tokyo, Aichi, Osaka, and Fukuoka). CONCLUSION: The magnitude of reductions in human mobility decreased with each subsequent state of emergency, consistent with pandemic fatigue. The association between network connectedness and rates of COVID-19 infection remained visible throughout the entirety of the pandemic period, suggesting that inter-prefectural mobility may have contributed to disease spread.

Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 incidence in Japan: a synthetic control approach.

BACKGROUND: The Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games (23 July-8 August 2021) were held in the middle of Japan's fifth wave of COVID-19, when the number of cases was on the rise, and coincided with the fourth state of emergency implemented by the host city, Tokyo. AIM: This study aimed to assess whether the hosting of the Games was associated with a change in the number of COVID-19 cases in Japan using a synthetic control method. METHODS: A weighted average of control countries with a variety of predictors was used to estimate the counterfactual trajectory of daily COVID-19 cases per 1 000 000 population in the absence of the Games in Japan. Outcome and predictor data were extracted using official and open sources spanning several countries. The predictors comprise the most recent country-level annual or daily data accessible during the Games, including the stringency of the government's COVID-19 response, testing capacity and vaccination capacity; human mobility index; electoral democracy index and demographic, socioeconomic, health and weather information. After excluding countries with missing data, 42 countries were ultimately used as control countries. RESULTS: The number of observed cases per 1 000 000 population on the last day of the Games was 109.2 (7-day average), which was 115.7% higher than the counterfactual trajectory comprising 51.0 confirmed cases per 1 000 000 population. During the Olympic period (since 23 July), the observed cumulative number of cases was 61.0% higher than the counterfactual trajectory, comprising 143 072 and 89 210 confirmed cases (p=0.023), respectively. The counterfactual trajectory lagged 10 days behind the observed trends. CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing likelihood that new emerging infectious diseases will be reported in the future, we believe that the results of this study should serve as a sentinel warning for upcoming mega-events during COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Characterising reasons for reversals of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy among Japanese people: One-year follow-up survey.

Background: Vaccine hesitancy is a global public health threat. We present unique data that characterises those who experienced reversals of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy in Japan. Methods: We administered a questionnaire on vaccination intention among 30053 Japanese adults aged 20 years or older before the COVID-19 vaccination was available to the general population (first survey) and conducted a follow-up survey on vaccination status one year later in February 2022 (second survey). Those who responded in the first survey that they did not intend to be vaccinated or were unsure and then responded in the second survey that they were vaccinated or intend to be vaccinated were asked about the reasons for their change of heart. Based on previous literature and expert opinion, 31 reasons for changing vaccination intention were compiled and respondents were asked to choose which among them applied to themselves, with multiple responses possible. Based on the results of those responses, each individual was then clustered using the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) dimensionality reduction technique and Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm. We then identified unique characteristics among each of the sub-populations (clusters). Findings: In the second survey we received 19195 responses (response rate 63.9%), of which 8077 responded 'no' or 'not sure' in the first survey regarding their intention to be vaccinated. Of these, 5861 responded having received or intending to receive the vaccine (72.6%). We detected six and five sub-populations (clusters) among the 'no' group and 'not sure' group, respectively. The clusters were characterized by perceived benefits of vaccination, including the COVID-19 vaccine, awareness of the COVID-19 vaccination status of those close to them, recognition of the social significance of COVID-19 vaccination for the spread of infection, and dispelled concerns about short-term adverse reactions and the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine. Work and personal relationship reasons were also found to be a unique overarching reason for vaccination changes of heart only among those who did not intend to vaccinate. Interpretation: Those who changed their intention to accept COVID-19 vaccination as well as their unique characteristics as detailed in this study will be important entry points when discussing how to promote vaccination to those who are hesitant to vaccinate in the future. Funding: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Kanagawa Prefectural Government of Japan and by AIST government subsidies.

Factors associated with reversals of COVID-19 vaccination willingness: Results from two longitudinal, national surveys in Japan 2021-2022.

Background: Research characterizing changes of heart with respect to vaccine intention is scarce, and very little research considers those who were initially vaccine willing but became hesitant. Here, we sought to assess the factors related to reversals of vaccine willingness. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal, national survey on vaccination intention among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older, with the first questionnaire performed in February-March 2021 (N = 30,053) and the follow-up in February 2022 (N = 19,195, response rate 63.9%). The study population comprised those who reported vaccine willingness in the first survey, with the outcome variable being development of vaccine hesitancy at follow-up. We performed a regression analysis of vaccination status using sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables as predictors. We used the sparse group minimax concave penalty (MCP) to select the optimum group of covariates for the logistic regression. Findings: Of 11,118 (57.9%) respondents who previously expressed interest in vaccination, 10,684 (96.1%) and 434 (3.9%) were in the vaccine willing and hesitant groups, respectively. Several covariates were found to significantly predict vaccine hesitancy, including marital status, influenza vaccine history, COVID-19 infection/testing history, engagement in COVID-19 preventive measures, perceived risks/benefits of the COVID-19 vaccine, and attitudes regarding vaccination policies and norms. The use of certain information sources was also associated with vaccine hesitancy. Interpretation: Sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables predicted the development of vaccine hesitancy among those with prior willingness. Most of these predictors were also associated with vaccination status. Funding: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Kanagawa Prefectural Government of Japan and by AIST government subsidies.

Factors associated with the risk perception of COVID-19 infection and severe illness: A cross-sectional study in Japan.

Understanding COVID-19 risk perception may help inform public health messaging aimed at encouraging preventive measures and improving countermeasures against the pandemic. We conducted an online survey of 29,708 Japanese adults in February 2021 and estimated the associations between COVID-19 risk perception and a broad array of individual factors. Two logistic regressions were constructed to estimate factors associated with the risk perception of COVID-19 (defined as responding that one might become infected within the next 6 months), and of severe illness among those who responded that they might become infected (defined as responding that one would become severely ill). After adjusting for covariates, those with a higher perceived risk of the COVID-19 vaccine had higher odds of risk perception for both infection and severe illness. Interestingly, those with higher odds of risk perception of being infected were more likely to report obtaining their information from healthcare workers whereas those with lower odds were more likely to report obtaining their information from the Internet or the government; those with lower odds of risk perception of being severely ill were more likely to report obtaining their information from the Internet. The higher the trust level in the government as a COVID-19 information source, the lower the odds of both risk perception of being infected and becoming severely ill. The higher the trust levels in social networking services as a COVID-19 information source, the higher the odds of risk perception of becoming severely ill. Public health messaging should address the factors identified in our study.

Percutaneous coronary intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: Insights from the nationwide registration data.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has negatively affected access to healthcare systems and treatment timelines. This study was designed to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods: From January 2019 to December 2020, 489,001 patients from 1068 institutions were registered in the Japanese nationwide PCI (J-PCI) registry. We constructed generalized linear models to assess the difference in the daily number of patients and in-hospital outcomes between 2019 and 2020. Findings: In total, 207 institutions (19·3%) had closed or restricted access during the first COVID-19 outbreak in May 2020; the number of closed or restricted institutions had plateaued at a median of 121 institutions (11·3%). The daily case volume of PCI significantly decreased in 2020 (by 6·7% compared with that in 2019; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6·2-7·2%; p < 0·001). Marked differences in the presentation of PCI patients were observed; more patients presented with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (18·3% vs. 17·5%; p < 0·001), acute heart failure (4·49% vs. 4·30%; p = 0·001), cardiogenic shock (3·79% vs. 3·45%; p < 0·001), and cardiopulmonary arrest (2·12% vs. 2·00%; p = 0·002) in 2020. The excess adjusted in-hospital mortality rate in patients treated in 2020 relative to those treated in 2019 was significant (adjusted odds ratio, 1·054; 95% CI, 1·004-1·107; p = 0·03). Interpretation: While the number of patients who underwent PCI substantially decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, more patients presented with high-risk characteristics and were associated with significantly higher adjusted in-hospital mortality. Funding: The J-PCI registry is a registry led and supported by the Japanese Association of Cardiovascular Intervention and Therapeutics. The present study was supported by the Grant-in-Aid from the Ministry of Health and Labour (No. 20IA2002 and 21FA1015), the Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (KAKENHI; No. 21K08064), and the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (No. 17ek0210097h000).

Identification of optimum combinations of media channels for approaching COVID-19 vaccine unsure and unwilling groups in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Optimizing media campaigns for those who were unsure or unwilling to take coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccines is required urgently to effectively present public health messages aimed at increasing vaccination coverage. We propose a novel framework for selecting tailor-made media channels and their combinations for this task. METHODS: An online survey was conducted in Japan during February to March, 2021, with 30,053 participants. In addition to their sociodemographic characteristics, it asked the attitude toward vaccination and information sources (i.e., media channels) for COVID-19 issues. Multinomial logic regression was fitted to estimate the combinations of the media channels and their odds ratio (OR) associated with vaccination attitudes. FINDINGS: The proportion of respondents who were unsure or unwilling to take the vaccination was skewed toward younger generation: 58.1% were aged under 35, while 28.1% were 65 years or older. Media channels such as "Non-medical and Non-TV" and "Non-medical and Non-government" were associated with the unsure group: OR (95% Confidence intervals, (CI)) = 1.75 (1.62, 1.89) and 1.53 (1.44, 1.62), respectively. In addition, media channels such as "Newspapers or the Novel Coronavirus Expert Meeting", "Medical or Local government", and "Non-TV" were associated with the unwilling group: OR (95% CI) were 2.00 (1.47, 2.75), 3.13 (2.58, 3.81), and 2.25 (1.84, 2.77), respectively. INTERPRETATION: To effectively approach COVID-19 vaccine unsure and unwilling groups, generation-specific online and offline media campaigns should be optimized to the type of vaccine attitude. FUNDING: Funded by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009) and the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) (JP20fk0108535).

The impact of COVID-19 on surgical procedures in Japan: analysis of data from the National Clinical Database.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The spread of COVID-19 has restricted the delivery of standard medical care to surgical patients dramatically. Surgical triage is performed by considering the type of disease, its severity, the urgency for surgery, and the condition of the patient, in addition to the scale of infectious outbreaks in the region. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of surgical procedures performed and whether the effects were more prominent during certain periods of widespread infection and in the affected regions. METHODS: We selected 20 of the most common procedures from each surgical field and compared the weekly numbers of each operation performed in 2020 with the respective numbers in 2018 and 2019, as recorded in the National Clinical Database (NCD). The surgical status during the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the relationship between surgical volume and the degree of regional infection were analyzed extensively. RESULTS: The rate of decline in surgery was at most 10-15%. Although the numbers of most oncological and cardiovascular procedures decreased in 2020, there was no significant change in the numbers of pancreaticoduodenectomy and aortic replacement procedures performed in the same period. CONCLUSION: The numbers of most surgical procedures decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the precise impact of surgical triage on decrease in detection of disease warrants further investigation.

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. METHODS: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. RESULTS: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

A prospective evaluation of AI-augmented epidemiology to forecast COVID-19 in the USA and Japan.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases, and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks. We present an international, prospective evaluation of our models' performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. Nationally, incident mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths during prospective deployment remained consistently <8% (US) and <29% (Japan), while cumulative MAPE remained <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and are robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.

Effect of emergency declaration on mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: A social network service-based difference-in-differences approach.

Strong lockdowns to control COVID-19 pandemic have been enforced globally and strongly restricted social activities with consequent negative effects on mental health. Japan has effectively implemented a unique voluntary policy to control COVID-19, but the mental health impact of the policy has not been examined on a large scale. In this study, we examined the effect of the first declaration on the mental health of affected residents. We used population-level questionnaire data of 17,400 people living under the state of emergency and 9208 who were not through a social-networking-service app and applied a difference-in-differences regression model to estimate the causal effect of the declaration of the state of emergency on psychological wellbeing, stratified by job category. No statistically significant effect of the declaration was observed among all job categories. This suggests that residents' psychological situation has gradually changed, possibly influenced by other factors such as the surrounding environment, rather than the declaration itself. Given that Japan has a unique policy to control COVID-19 instead of a strict lockdown, our results showed the Japanese-style policy may serve as a form of harm reduction strategy, to control the epidemic with minimal psychological harm, and enable a policy that balances disease control and mental health. Caution is necessary that this study used self-reported data from a limited time period before and after the first declaration in April 2020.

Mobility Patterns in Different Age Groups in Japan during the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Small Area Time Series Analysis through March 2021.

In the COVID-19 era, movement restrictions are crucial to slow virus transmission and have been implemented in most parts of the world, including Japan. To find new insights on human mobility and movement restrictions encouraged (but not forced) by the emergency declaration in Japan, we analyzed mobility data at 35 major stations and downtown areas in Japan-each defined as an area overlaid by several 125-meter grids-from September 1, 2019 to March 19, 2021. Data on the total number of unique individuals per hour passing through each area were obtained from Yahoo Japan Corporation (i.e., more than 13,500 data points for each area). We examined the temporal trend in the ratio of the rolling seven-day daily average of the total population to a baseline on January 16, 2020, by ten-year age groups in five time frames. We demonstrated that the degree and trend of mobility decline after the declaration of a state of emergency varies across age groups and even at the subregional level. We demonstrated that monitoring dynamic geographic and temporal mobility information stratified by detailed population characteristics can help guide not only exit strategies from an ongoing emergency declaration, but also initial response strategies before the next possible resurgence. Combining such detailed data with data on vaccination coverage and COVID-19 incidence (including the status of the health care delivery system) can help governments and local authorities develop community-specific mobility restriction policies. This could include strengthening incentives to stay home and raising awareness of cognitive errors that weaken people's resolve to refrain from nonessential movement.

Reasons for being unsure or unwilling regarding intention to take COVID-19 vaccine among Japanese people: A large cross-sectional national survey.

BACKGROUND: Identifying and understanding reasons for being unsure or unwilling regarding intention to be vaccinated against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may help to inform future public health messages aimed at increasing vaccination coverage. We analyzed a broad array of individual's psychological dispositions with regard to decision-making about COVID-19 vaccination in Japan. METHODS: A nationally representative cross-sectional web survey was conducted with 30053 Japanese adults aged 20 years or older at the end of February 2021. In addition to the question on the individual's intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19, respondents were asked about their sociodemographic, health-related, and psychological characteristics as well as information sources about COVID-19 and their levels of trust. Also, those who responded 'not sure' or 'no' regarding intention to take COVID-19 vaccine were asked why. Multinomial logistic regression with sparse group Lasso (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) penalty was used to compute adjusted odds ratios for factors associated with the intention (not sure/no versus yes). FINDINGS: The percentages of respondents who answered 'not sure' or 'no' regarding intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19 vaccine were 32.9% and 11.0%, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the perceived risks of COVID-19, perceived risk of a COVID-19 vaccine, perceived benefits of a COVID-19 vaccine, trust in scientists and public authorities, and the belief that healthcare workers should be vaccinated were significantly associated with vaccination intention. Several sources of information about COVID-19 were also significantly associated with vaccination intention, including physicians, nurses, and television, medical information sites with lower odds of being unsure or unwilling, and internet news sites, YouTube, family members, and scientists and researchers with higher odds. The higher the level of trust in television as a source of COVID-19 information, the higher the odds of responding 'not sure' (odds ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.21). We also demonstrated that many respondents presented concerns about the side effects and safety of a COVID-19 vaccine as a major reason for being unsure or unwilling. To decide whether or not to get the vaccine, many respondents requested more information about the compatibilities between the vaccine and their personal health conditions, whether other people had been vaccinated, the effectiveness of vaccines against variants, and doctors' recommendations. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that public health messaging based on the sociodemographic and psychological characteristics of those who are unsure or unwilling regarding intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19 vaccine may help to increase vaccine uptake amongst this population. FUNDING: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).